Party affiliation gallup

For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. But the political implications of that, including a potential midterm windfall, are tempered by the simultaneous finding that the party has never been more unpopular than it is now. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 80% cellphone respondents and 20% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region.

For results based on these combined samples of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. After not registering under 30% until 2015, the percentage has been below that mark in six of the past 10 years.

The low point in Republican identification was 25% in 2013. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.

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These results are based on combined data from 2024 Gallup telephone surveys, encompassing interviews with more than 14,000 U.S.

adults.

Gallup asks Americans if they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Until now, the Republican Party had led or tied in most quarters since 2023.

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These findings are based on quarterly averages of Gallup poll data, consisting of interviews with no fewer than 3,000 U.S.

adults in each quarter.

The net three-point increase in Democratic affiliation between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, from 43% to 46%, is entirely due to more Americans saying they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (up four points), not because more are identifying as Democrats outright (down one point).

Meanwhile, Republicans’ four-point decline over the same period is due to equal two-point declines in the percentages of people identifying as and leaning Republican.

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As such, most of the movement in party affiliation in the past three quarters has occurred among U.S.

adults with weaker party attachments — leaning independents — than among core party identifiers.

Democratic Party Image at Record Low

Democratic gains in party affiliation have occurred despite the party’s poor public image. All first-term presidents since 1994, with the exception of George W. Bush in 2002 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, had job approval ratings below 50% at the time of the midterm election.

In 2017 and 2021, the party changes occurred later in the year, including the fourth quarter in 2017 under Trump and the third quarter in 2021 under Joe Biden.

Biden and the Democratic Party saw the biggest total first-year decline: seven points by the end of his first year, after the U.S. had suffered a major surge in COVID-19 infections, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and a spike in inflation.

The decline in Republican Party affiliation in Trump’s first term was smaller, likely because his party was starting from a relatively weak political position in 2017 at the outset of his presidency, with 42% of U.S.

adults identifying as Republican or leaning Republican. The incumbent presidents subsequently saw their party lose one (2010, 2018 and 2022) or both (1994) houses of Congress in the first midterm election of their presidency.

Those midterm losses were preceded by shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party during the president’s first year in office.

The current movement in party preferences is primarily driven by a greater share of political independents saying they lean toward the Democratic Party.

Party Preferences Shift in Second Quarter

In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican.

That three-percentage-point Democratic advantage compares with a tie between the two parties in the first quarter of 2025, after a four-point Republican lead in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Slightly more Americans say the Republican Party (42%) rather than the Democratic Party (37%) can bring about changes the country needs.

Conversely, Democrats are viewed better than Republicans in two areas largely tied to party ethics, though the Democratic Party’s scores are not particularly strong. Since then, the moderate share has tied or slightly trailed the conservative percentage.

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Gallup asks Americans to describe their political views on a five-point “very conservative” to “very liberal” scale, and the trend is based on annual averages of national telephone surveys conducted each year since 1992.

Gallup has asked the initial party identification question using a consistent telephone interviewing methodology since 1988.

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Both parties are near their historic low points in unleaned party identification. There have been slightly larger-than-average increases in Republican identification and leaning among Hispanic Americans (from 27% to 36%), young adults (33% to 39%), lower-income Americans (36% to 41%), those without a college degree (45% to 50%), Catholics (42% to 47%) and Black Americans (12% to 17%).

Among the subgroups showing little to no increase in Republican Party affiliation since 2021 are college graduates (from 41% to 42%), adults aged 65 and older (49% to 48%), non-Hispanic White people (53% to 54%), married people (51% to 52%), upper-income (47% to 48%) and middle-income Americans (46% to 47%), political liberals (9% to 10%), and nonreligious Americans (25% to 26%).

Independent Identification Holds at Record-High 43%

When initially asked for their political party identification in 2024, Americans were most likely to identify as independents (43%), with 28% saying they were Democrats and 28% Republicans.

pts.U.S.45387180,106Lean DemMaine47398941Lean DemNew Hampshire43403831CompetitiveVermont523022496Solid DemMassachusetts5726313,805Solid DemRhode Island482721602Solid DemConnecticut5132192,020Solid DemNew York52292310,864Solid DemNew Jersey4833154,455Solid DemPennsylvania464157,974CompetitiveMaryland5628283,193Solid DemDelaware453312500Solid DemWest Virginia4044-41,011CompetitiveOhio4142-16,319CompetitiveMichigan453875,541Lean DemIndiana4143-23,578CompetitiveIllinois5033175,712Solid DemWisconsin434123,353CompetitiveMinnesota4737103,428Solid DemIowa424202,126CompetitiveMissouri3845-73,602Lean RepNorth Dakota2856-28536Solid RepSouth Dakota3552-17579Solid RepNebraska3550-151,437Solid RepKansas3448-141,771Solid RepVirginia453874,893Lean DemNorth Carolina443955,774CompetitiveSouth Carolina3747-102,821Solid RepGeorgia424025,458CompetitiveFlorida4239311,094CompetitiveKentucky4145-42,508CompetitiveTennessee3547-124,117Solid RepAlabama3550-153,057Solid RepMississippi3845-71,654Lean RepArkansas3645-91,883Lean RepLouisiana4043-32,589CompetitiveOklahoma3549-142,459Solid RepTexas3841-314,138CompetitiveMontana3751-141,059Solid RepArizona4042-23,669CompetitiveColorado463793,574Lean DemIdaho3153-221,254Solid RepWyoming2756-29493Solid RepUtah2956-272,099Solid RepNevada423931,540CompetitiveNew Mexico4834141,454Solid DemCalifornia51302118,168Solid DemOregon4936133,187Solid DemWashington4934154,686Solid DemHawaii502822739Solid DemAlaska3152-21553Solid RepDistrict of Columbia701159512Solid Dem